Yes, That is a Fat Lady --

I intend no mean-spiritedness. But it's over for Senator Clinton.

She will lose in Texas by 6 points. If she wins in Ohio it won't matter. The break in the dam is the countless congressman, mayors, and governors that are bailing on Senator Clinton and going to Senator Obama. They are playing a futures market with their political lives, and Senator Clinton has become a long shot. Sounds Darwinian, and in a way, it is, or maybe Machiavellian. Senator Barack Obama, at the moment looks unbeatable, now and in November.

But this is the primary, and it is March -- not November, a very long 8 months away.

Recent history is replete with "sure thing" candidates yesterday, forgotten today. Senator Gary Hart was supposed to be the saviour of the Democratic Party in January 1987, in May 1987 and 1 photo later, it was over.

Howard Dean was unstoppable in 2003. In December, of that year he led other democrats in the primary race by 20 points (including John Kerry). He was raising millions on the internet, the first to use this new fund-raising medium. The young people were listening to him and the enthusiasm was palpable. Then it happened. The Yaahiii scream moment. The shout heard round the world. It looked stupid, it sounded stupid, and his popularity dropped like a rock and he with it.

These things happen in political campaigns. It could happen in this election, and the unexpected is more likely to happen to Senator Obama than to Clinton or McCain, only because he has yet to experience the national vetting of presidential politics. That's what the insiders are worried about, but won't tell you. This is a young, thoughtful man that I find hard to dislike, even given his most-left-of-the-left policies. He has a certain presence that inspires confidence, but, the infectious campaign enthusiasm will subside and average Americans will decide then if Senator Obama wears well on them. The best thing the Democrats can do is to wait until his honeymoon is over before declaring a winner. Meteoric rises precede meteoric falls . . . often . . . but not always. Sometimes it sticks.

Two weeks before the November election, if the economy has improved, if results in Iraq improve, or if bin Laden has been caught -- the Republicans can win. If not, we lose the House, the Senate and the Presidency.

I'm looking forward to November. Senator Obama looks strong now, time will tell if can finish like he has started. Good luck, and may the Good Lord look over this mess we call an election.

Predictions anyone?

She Just Doesn't Get It.

Cartoon by MSNBC's Daryl Cagle

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I have said for at least 2 years that Hillary Clinton would win the Presidential election in November, 2008. Over the last 2-3 weeks I have realized that I am probably going to be wrong. I am surprised by her performance. Neither she or anyone else could have predicted Senator Obama's popularity, but she has responded poorly and her response has been her demise.

"The medium is the message."

Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man / Marshall McLuhan / 1964

Point: Television, to borrow a phrase from Marshall McLuhan's book, is a cool medium. It requires the participant to engage himself, not just in the words heard but in the manner in which those words are presented. It is visual first. Going back to the Nixon/Kennedy debates, critics have realized that the perception of confidence and wisdom is communicated through more than words. Hand movements, hair styles, height, voice inflection, laughs, demeanor, and of course, President Nixon's 5 o'clock shadow create strong, lasting impressions.

Mrs. Clinton and her advisers are not getting it. She continues to whine away at Barack Obama, the media, the Bushes, Republicans and everyone one else who doesn't recognize her divine right to the presidency. Last night's blast at the fact that she got too many "first questions" was a huge mistake and only hurt her. She gained nothing from it. Senator Obama is just sitting there watching Hillary bury herself. Or as the cartoonist shows, standing there watching as she overshoots the mark. Whoever is advising her should be fired immediately. I'm not the only one saying this, even her supporters on the TV newscasts are suggesting she go back to her strengths and start acting presidential.

I'm a Republican. I want her to win the Democratic primary because right now Senator Obama looks unstoppable. But her only chance is to forget her opponent and to attempt to frame the debate around her strengths.

Tomorrow: Senator Obama looks unstoppable now, but . . .
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On Hot Chocolate and Cold Weather, #2.

In our home, after a day in the snow, that day ended with mom's hot chocolate. Whole milk, cocoa powder, sugar and heat. That's it, but that was enough, because chocolate goes well with a lot of things, and it goes perfectly with milk. The combination of chocolate's bitter sweetness and milk's smooth sweetness blends nicely when warmed, especially on a cold day.

Before I give my mother's short list of ingredients, I should say that there are easy ways to complicate or over-simplify this. You can buy quality chocolate bars, chip them, melt them, mix them with hot water and then milk, or oversimplify and do the microwave thing. The first is too much trouble the second doesn't taste right. Here's what you need:

Fresh whole milk
Chocolate cocoa powder
Sugar
Good, heat conducting pot
Heat

Measurements are more difficult because of taste. My suggestion for the average Hershey's type cocoa powder is a tablespoon of powder and a tablespoon of sugar for every cup of milk. I like one tablespoon, you might like 1.5 or two. The instructions are as easy as the ingredients:

1. Warm milk slowly but steadily until it is very hot but not boiling.
2. Add a little warm milk to the dry ingredients stir until shiny.
3. Add the chocolate mix in the warm milk.

Takes about 5 minutes, but you do have to stand there and stir, almost continuously, until just too hot to drink. Do not boil the milk.

Pour carefully into a warm mug. If you want to top it off with little marshmallows, that's okay, but even better is the old fashioned marshmallow whip -- hey, at this point who's counting calories.

Finally, what I loved in addition to this was buttered toast. Have you ever dipped a piece of crispy buttered toast into a cup of hot chocolate? Low cal it's not but it sure tastes good.