Friday, February 29, 2008

Yes, That is a Fat Lady --

I intend no mean-spiritedness. But it's over for Senator Clinton.

She will lose in Texas by 6 points. If she wins in Ohio it won't matter. The break in the dam is the countless congressman, mayors, and governors that are bailing on Senator Clinton and going to Senator Obama. They are playing a futures market with their political lives, and Senator Clinton has become a long shot. Sounds Darwinian, and in a way, it is, or maybe Machiavellian. Senator Barack Obama, at the moment looks unbeatable, now and in November.

But this is the primary, and it is March -- not November, a very long 8 months away.

Recent history is replete with "sure thing" candidates yesterday, forgotten today. Senator Gary Hart was supposed to be the saviour of the Democratic Party in January 1987, in May 1987 and 1 photo later, it was over.

Howard Dean was unstoppable in 2003. In December, of that year he led other democrats in the primary race by 20 points (including John Kerry). He was raising millions on the internet, the first to use this new fund-raising medium. The young people were listening to him and the enthusiasm was palpable. Then it happened. The Yaahiii scream moment. The shout heard round the world. It looked stupid, it sounded stupid, and his popularity dropped like a rock and he with it.

These things happen in political campaigns. It could happen in this election, and the unexpected is more likely to happen to Senator Obama than to Clinton or McCain, only because he has yet to experience the national vetting of presidential politics. That's what the insiders are worried about, but won't tell you. This is a young, thoughtful man that I find hard to dislike, even given his most-left-of-the-left policies. He has a certain presence that inspires confidence, but, the infectious campaign enthusiasm will subside and average Americans will decide then if Senator Obama wears well on them. The best thing the Democrats can do is to wait until his honeymoon is over before declaring a winner. Meteoric rises precede meteoric falls . . . often . . . but not always. Sometimes it sticks.

Two weeks before the November election, if the economy has improved, if results in Iraq improve, or if bin Laden has been caught -- the Republicans can win. If not, we lose the House, the Senate and the Presidency.

I'm looking forward to November. Senator Obama looks strong now, time will tell if can finish like he has started. Good luck, and may the Good Lord look over this mess we call an election.

Predictions anyone?


Anonymous said...

I thought this blog was about food?

Francis Shivone said...

Food plus -- read the sub title.